Business Seminar Series Details for Fall 2023

Title: “Forecasting GDP in Europe with Textual Data”

Speaker: Sebastiano Manzan

Affiliation: Baruch College
Site: https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/faculty-profile/sebastiano-manzan/ 

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm

Location: DLS300 (Capalbo Room)

Abstract: We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the five major European economies. The sentiment indicators that we construct are aspect-based, in the sense that we consider only the text that is related to a specific economic aspect of interest. In addition, the sentiment is fine-grained as each word is assigned a score in the interval [-1, 1]. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for 26 major newspapers in 5 different languages. The evidence indicates that these sentiment indicators are significant predictors to forecast GDP and their predictive content is robust to controlling for macroeconomic and survey confidence indicators available to forecasters in real-time. We also discuss the application of the sentiment indicators during the Covid-19 pandemic and demonstrate their relevance in nowcasting GDP.

Title: “Addressing an Aging, Multigenerational Workforce”

Speaker: Michael North

Affiliation: New York University
Site: https://www.mike-north.com/ 

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm

Location: DLS300 (Capalbo Room)

Abstract: As companies and workplaces undergo tremendous transformations due to new technologies, workforces are also being transformed due to the presence of five generations at work. Today’s workforce is truly multigenerational. This creates challenges due to different communication styles, work practices, and expectations from employers, but it also creates significant opportunities, as different generations bring different experiences and skills. Often overlooked is the tremendous value that older workers can add. Myths and misconceptions abound that older workers are not productive or innovative, are resistant to change, are hard to work with, and expect higher pay. The truth is that older workers tend to be reliable, loyal, productive, and open minded. Most older workers are open to change, are interested in learning new things, and can play significant roles in contributing to or leading teams. Employers need to focus on recruiting older workers, providing flexible work arrangements, and helping older workers—and all workers—continue to learn to stay current. By understanding the tremendous value of older workers, organizations can take important steps in harnessing the power of a diverse, multigenerational workforce.

Title: “Headhunting and Warfare: Evidence from Austronesia”

Speaker: Boris Gershman

Affiliation: American University
Site: https://www.borisgershman.com/

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm

Location: Zoom Meeting

Abstract: Headhunting is the practice of acquiring human heads for ritual purposes that was historically widespread around the world. We hypothesize that headhunting emerged as a cultural response to frequent inter-tribal warfare and served as a mechanism to train warriors ready to defend their community. The practice was effective since, first, it allowed to verify warrior quality based on performance in headhunting raids and, second, it offered a system of rewards for men to develop and refine warfare skills. We use phylogenetic comparative methods and ethnographic data to empirically investigate this hypothesis in a sample of preindustrial Austronesian societies. Headhunting turns out to be substantially more prevalent in societies exposed to frequent warfare, accounting for shared cultural ancestry and a host of potentially confounding characteristics. Furthermore, Bayesian estimation of correlated evolution models suggests that, consistent with our hypothesis, the adoption of headhunting was driven by increased warfare frequency and the decline of this practice followed a reduction in intergroup conflict.

Title: “Were Covid-19 shutdowns good for maternal, fetal and infant health?”

Speaker: Daniel Dench

Affiliation: Georgia Tech
Site: https://www.danieldench.com/

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm

Location: DLS300 (Capalbo Room)

Abstract: Despite loss of in-person prenatal care during the pandemic, preterm birth rates dropped sharply immediately in March 2020 in the United States. This was especially true for preterm births involving c-section and induced delivery. First, we show the drop in care was concentrated among low-risk patients. We go on to provide the first comprehensive evidence of maternal, fetal and infant health during the pandemic in the US. Next, we show that the drop in preterm was concentrated in occurrence counties where preterm birth involving c-sections and induced deliveries rose the most from 2015 to 2019. This implies whatever caused the rise in c-sections and inductions in this period is likely to drive the discontinuous drop. Finally, we show that maternal deaths rose but mostly related directly to COVID-19 infections. In addition, we show that fetal deaths did not rise significantly, and infant mortality fell. The implications are that a reduction in prenatal care among low-risk patients could both reduce costs and reduce poor outcomes.

Title: “Leverage and Stablecoin Pegs”

Speaker: Alexandros Vardoulakis
Affiliation: Federal Reserve Board
Site: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/alexandros-vardoulakis.htm

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm
Location: Zoom Meeting

Abstract: Money is debt that circulates with no questions asked. Stablecoins are a new form of private money which circulate with many questions asked. We show how stablecoins can maintain a constant price even though they face run risk and pay no interest. Stablecoin holders are indirectly compensated for stablecoin run risk because they can lend the coins to levered traders. When speculative demand is strong, levered traders are willing to pay a premium to borrow stablecoins. Therefore, the stablecoin can support a $1 peg even with higher levels of run risk.

Title: “The US Economic Outlook and the Current Advances in Monetary Policy”

Speaker: Hany Guirguis and the Fed Challenge Team
Affiliation: Manhattan College

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm
Location: DLS300 (Capalbo Room)

Abstract: Special Presentation for the Undergraduate Fed Challenge

Title: “Fractal Theory of Income Distribution”

Speaker: Marco Ranaldi
Affiliation: Manhattan College
Site: https://www.mranaldi.com/ 

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm
Location: Zoom Meeting

Abstract: This paper uses fractal mathematics to describe the distribution of income among individuals. It shows the existence of a stochastic fractal relationship between a country’s output and income inequality: the higher the level of income inequality, the lower the country’s output, all else being equal. The framework allows us to isolate the impact of inequality on output from that of average growth.

Title: “Does Delivery of Primary Health Care Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from the roll-out of Community Health Centers.”

Speaker: Maria Fernanda Rosales-Rueda
Affiliation: Rutgers University
Site: https://mariafrosales.com/

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm
Location: DLS300 (Capalbo Room)

Abstract: Community Health Centers (CHCs) deliver primary care to underserved populations by locating sliding-scale clinics in economically disadvantaged areas. We investigate how this policy affected infant health using the rollout of CHCs and a flexible event study framework with Vital Statistics natality data. We find that maternal access to CHCs improves infant health outcomes within seven years after their introduction. Treatment-on-the-treated estimates show a 25 to 42 gram increase in birth weight and a 9% to 16% reduction in the likelihood of low birth weight. These improvements in infant health can be explained by increased access to early prenatal care and reductions in maternal smoking.

Speaker: Melina Kourantidou
Affiliation: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution & University of Southern Denmark
Site: https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/en/persons/mkour 

Time: 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm
Location: Zoom Meeting

Abstract: TBA.